(West Lafayette, IN) - The stage could be set for Brazil to overtake the U.S. in corn exports this year.

 

That was a possibility discussed by a panel of agriculture economists from Purdue University in their monthly Corn and Soybean Outlook presentation on February 10.

 

Jim Mintert, Director of the Center for Commerical Agriculture at the West Lafayette campus, said corn exports in the U.S. have dropped from a USDA projected 2.75 billion bushels to 1.92 billion bushes this year.

 

In comparison, projected exports from the nation’s top 5 major competitors Brazil, Argentina, South Africa, Ukraine and Russia have risen from a combined 3.68 billion bushels to 4.5 billion bushels the past two years.

 

“It looks like Brazil is potentially going to overtake the U.S. with respect to exports,” Mintert said.

 

Michael Langemeier, Associate Director of the Center for Commercial Agriculture, said Brazil has been adding acres for “second crop corn” while increasing the amount of acres for soybeans.

 

He said Brazil has also experienced a higher percentage of yield growth from becoming more experienced at raising corn.

 

“It’ll be interesting to see how that plays out as we get into the summer,” Mintert said.

 

Mintert said the biggest factor for U.S. corn growers, though, could be what happens with the crop in Ukraine because of the ongoing war with Russia close to entering its second year.

 

USDA is projecting Ukraine will produce about 900 million bushels of corn this year or slightly below last year’s total.  Mintert said he would be somewhat surprised if Ukraine hits the mark given reports the country is having difficulty obtaining fertilizer and some trouble acquiring seed.

 

“I’m not going to say it’s not going to happen.  They did manage to move more corn than probably anybody thought they could immediately following the invasion,” he said.

 

“Certainly, their production is going to be a wild card this year,” Langemeier said.